The certificate price isn't fixed — it tracks the EU ETS auction average on a schedule that changes in 2027. Here's exactly how it works and what happens if you surrender too few.
Last verified: 02 September 2026
The CBAM certificate price tracks the average auction price of EU ETS allowances over the preceding period. The publication cadence itself is a common point of confusion: in 2026, prices are published quarterly — on the first Monday after each quarter closes. From 2027, publication moves to weekly, matching the standard EU ETS cadence.
| Period | Price | Published |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | €75.36/tCO₂e | 7 April 2026 |
| Q2 2026 | €75.28/tCO₂e | 6 July 2026 |
| Q3 2026 | — | due 5 October 2026 |
| Q4 2026 | — | due 4 January 2027 |
A declaration or calculator that hardcodes a single "current" price without checking the publication date is at real risk of using a stale figure — the Q1→Q2 2026 move alone was an €0.08/tCO₂e change, small per tonne but compounding at volume.
You owe one certificate per tonne of CO₂-equivalent in your net obligation — gross embedded emissions, reduced by any free-allocation benchmark credit and any Article 9 deduction for a carbon price already paid in the country of origin. The result is the number of certificates to surrender by the annual deadline.
If you surrender fewer certificates than you owe, Article 26 (as amended by EU Reg 2025/2083) imposes a penalty on the shortfall, with two distinct tiers:
| Tier | Rate | Applies to |
|---|---|---|
| Authorised Declarant, insufficient certificates | €100/tCO₂e (indexed annually to EU inflation) | A registered declarant who under-surrenders |
| Unauthorised import | €300–€500/tCO₂e (3–5× the standard rate) | Importing CBAM goods without Authorised Declarant status at all |
Both are distinctly higher than the €10–€50 range that applied only during the earlier transitional reporting-only phase (Oct 2023–Dec 2025, before certificate surrender existed at all).
This penalty is charged in addition to still owing the underlying certificates — it doesn't substitute for them.
In 2026, quarterly — published on the first Monday after the end of each quarter. From 2027 onward, weekly. This is a real cadence change year-over-year, not a static rule.